Chapter 13 Portfolio Valuation

Seller Tapes Show Promises.
We Show What Actually Pays.

PVL analyzes real trustee payment histories and court docket activity to project exact cashflows, dismissal risks, and priority positioning — so you never overpay for a dying claim.

Calibrated on 150,000+ Completed Cases
$1B+ in Face Value Analyzed
5+ Years of Trustee Disbursement Data
Deal Screen

What the Seller Says vs. What We Found

Every account the seller marks "Active — Current" gets a second look. We pull actual trustee payment histories and court docket filings to expose the gaps between the tape and reality.

Portfolio: Tape #402

Last Updated: Feb 5, 2026
Total Accounts
2,401
Across 47 trustees
Face Value
$10.5M
Mixed asset portfolio
Portfolio NPV @ 18%
$4.2M
40.2% recovery rate
Avg. Monthly Pay
$242
6-month weighted avg
Dismissal Risk
387
16% of portfolio
Why Sellers' Numbers Are Wrong

Three Problems We Solve Before You Bid

We use actual trustee payment histories and court docket filings to find every gap between what's promised and what's real.

[ 01 ]

Realistic Completion Odds

Sellers mark cases "Active" — but what are the actual odds it completes? We use real court docket filings and dismissal motions to calculate exact survival probabilities by district and case age. You see the true likelihood of payout, not wishful thinking.

Court Docket Data District-Specific
[ 02 ]

True Priority Positioning

Attorney fees and secured claims — especially mortgages — eat cash before your unsecured claim sees a dollar. We track exactly how much is consumed by senior priorities so you know when your claims will actually start paying, if ever.

Fee Burn Tracking Priority Waterfall
[ 03 ]

Catching Silent Defaults

A case can be technically "Active" for months after payments stop. We compare actual trustee disbursements against plan obligations in real time. If a debtor is going dark, you'll know before the docket does — and before you pay full price for a ghost claim.

Payment Velocity Early Warning
How it Works

Messy Tape In. IC-Ready Package Out.

Drop in the seller's file — however messy it is. We return a pristine valuation package with every claim scored, every discrepancy flagged, and every number your team needs to defend the bid.

Ingestion

Secure Upload
  • Bid Tape
    CSV / XLSX
    Drop in the seller's file as-is. We handle messy columns, inconsistent formatting, and missing fields.
    Required: CaseNumber • Debtor Name (or ID) • Optional: District
  • Valuation Config
    Parameters
    Set your own assumptions. We run sensitivity across your parameters.
    Discount rate • Dismissal hazard curve • Decay half-life • Asset scope

Deliverables

Underwriting Package
  • Trustee Disbursement Ledger
    ledgers.csv
    What the trustee actually paid out — line by line. Compare against what the seller claimed.
    NDC_Case_ID • NDC_Claim_ID • Date • Amount • TransType • ClassCode
  • Claims & Waterfall Snapshot
    claims.csv
    See exactly where your claim sits in the priority stack and how much is left after senior claims eat their share.
    ClaimLevel • ClassTypeCode (P/S/U) • PrincipalOwed • StopDisbursementFlag
  • Valuation Package
    Tables (CSV)
    The numbers you hand to your IC. Cashflow projections, NPV by claim, and every seller discrepancy documented.
    Projected cashflows • NPV by case • Portfolio Sensitivity • Discrepancy Report
Full Transparency

Every Number Is Auditable

No black boxes. You get the raw trustee data, the model outputs, and the discrepancy flags — everything your IC needs to sign off on the bid.

Example Portfolio Summary Downloadable Tables
Accounts
2,000
Sample Portfolio
Discount Rate
18%
Configurable
Dismissal Hazard
10%
Annualized
Velocity Half-Life
6 mo
Weighted Decay
ledgers.csv
What the trustee actually disbursed — month by month, claim by claim.
Join keys: NDC_Case_ID • NDC_Claim_ID
claims.csv
Where each claim sits in the priority stack and what's left after senior claims.
Join keys: NDC_Case_ID • NDC_Claim_ID
risk_flags.csv
Every red flag: stopped payments, missing claims, silent defaults.
Join keys: NDC_Case_ID
⚠ What We Catch That Sellers Don't Show You
• Case 24-12345: Plan shows $285/mo, trustee ledger avg $142/mo (6mo)
• Case 24-54321: Unsecured claim listed @ $8,400 — no disbursements in 14 months
• Case 24-99999: Secured claim paid in full, unsecured recovery now viable
The Economics of Accuracy

The Cost of Being Wrong

A single "ghost claim" can wipe out the margin of ten performing ones. We calculate the mathematical distance between the seller's tape and the trustee's reality.

Catching the "Margin Killers"

  • Ch 13 → 7 Conversions: We flag cases with "Means Test" failures or bad-faith filings before they exit the payment pool.
  • Erratic Payers: If a debtor misses 2 of the last 4 payments, your NPV shouldn't be 100%. We apply a volatility decay.
  • Cramdowns & Plan Amendments: We track motions to amend plans that lower the "pot" for unsecured creditors mid-stream.
// The ROI

Every dollar of "ghost value" we catch drops straight to your bottom line.

(Seller's Tape Value) - (PVL's Reality Check) = Your Capital Saved

If PVL flags just one $8,000 silent default per month, the platform has already paid for itself. Most clients find $50k+ in ghost value per tape.

Volume-Based Pricing

Full Insight at Every Scale

Every tier receives the Complete Valuation Package. You only pay for the number of claims you need to underwrite each month.

Foundation
$5,000 /mo
Up to 1,000 valuations
~$6.67 per claim
Perfect for boutique firms or buyers bidding on 1-2 tapes per month. Includes the full reality-check suite.
  • Complete Valuation Package
  • Silent Default & Cramdown Alerts
  • Standard 24h Turnaround
Add-On: Backtesting
+$2,500 /mo
Monthly Variance Audit
We ingest your actual collection data and map it against our past projections to prove the model's accuracy to your IC.
  • Variance Analysis Reports
  • Model Tuning & Calibration
  • IC-Ready Performance Memos

Standard Features vs. Add-Ons

Underwriting Capability Foundation Velocity Backtesting Add-On
Standard in All Valuations
Trustee Ledger Reconciliation (Real vs. Tape)
Ch 7 Conversion & Dismissal Probabilities
Cramdown & Priority Waterfall Analysis
Performance & Audit
Actual vs. Projected Variance Reporting
Historical Recovery Backtesting
Risk-Free Entry

The Pilot Run

$500 / flat rate

Send us your next tape. We'll run the entire portfolio against trustee-verified payment data and hand you the top 100 most dangerous discrepancies. If PVL doesn't change your bid, you've lost $500. If it does, you just saved multiples of that.

Full Tape Scored in 24 hours
Top 100 Discrepancy Report
Completion Odds per Claim